Rock, Paper, Scissors

Most of us played rock, paper, scissors as kids. It’s a simple hand game where two players count to three and then reveal either a fist (rock), a flat hand (paper), or two fingers (scissors). The winner is decided by the rules: rock crushes scissors, scissors cut paper, and paper covers rock. It’s quick, random, and usually more about chance than strategy.

That little game is a surprisingly good metaphor for how many managers make decisions. Faced with tough choices, they often rely on gut instinct, quick reactions, or even random chance—like throwing down rock, paper, or scissors. Sometimes that works. But more often, these snap judgments miss important context and lead to inconsistent results.

A better approach is evidence-based decision making. Instead of guessing, managers can lean on data, past experience, and current trends. When time allows, this means looking at the numbers, studying patterns, and learning from what has (and hasn’t) worked before.

Patterns are powerful. They allow us to connect dots that might otherwise seem random. A sales manager may notice that certain promotions consistently work better in the spring than in the fall. An HR leader might see that employee turnover spikes after poor communication during performance reviews. A product manager may realize that customer complaints follow a specific trend after each software update. These are not coincidences. They are patterns waiting to be recognized.

Pattern recognition takes practice. It’s about asking: What keeps happening? What repeats over time? What signals predict success or warn of failure? The more managers pay attention to these signals, the better they can anticipate outcomes rather than react to them.

The next time you’re tempted to play “managerial rock, paper, scissors,” pause and ask: What does the evidence and the patterns tell me? The answer may not always be perfect, but it will almost always be better than a random throw of the hand.

John Bradley Jackson © Copyright 2025